Statistics: It Could be the Heisenberg Principle -- Yet, I'm Uncertain...

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Statistics:
It Could be the Heisenberg Principle -- Yet, I'm Uncertain...

Dear Readers:

Firstly, note that the reference above has nothing to do with a trophy or with any organized sport inbolving a puck or any other projectile. It involves the notion of observation bias and the inherent uncertainty which surrounds it.

In basic terms, Heisenberg stated (probably in German), the act of our observing events actually influences them. While he was likely applying this to the notion of locating any particular electron orbiting an atom at any given moment, it metaphorically extrapololates itself to the notion of "before you judge the data, judge the source." In reviewing the results of surveys, polls, studies and the like, the first job is to investigate the influences (financial, industrial, personal, temporal, etc.) that "motivated" [either consciously or subconsciously] the researchers to do the research -- and often the priority of "selling a point of view" over merely "objectively discovering the truth" without any preconceived notion or extraneous pressures or influences.

Poll readers beware! The information which you are receiving may be marketing or publicity thinly-veiled as "objective reporting." Need an example? FOX NEWS: FAIR AND BALANCED REPORTING. (chuckle). Need another: The US Labor Department Statistics about unemployment and jobs lost. Tell Americans who cannot find employment anywhere, or who have just given up trying, or who have just reached the end of their unemployment benefits that we are "coming out of the recession," or that we've "turned the corner."

Caveat emptor.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle


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Labels and Terms: polls, surveys, bias, hidden influences, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, judging the source, judging the reasons, asking questions about credibility and objectivity, TNNW, Douglas Castle

ORDER OUT OF CHAOS - A Socio-Economic and Behavioral Commentary

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ORDER OUT OF CHAOS - A SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND BEHAVIORAL COMMENTARY

Throughout the United States and the rest of the world that surrounds us (I sound a bit paranoic, don't I?), people are frightened. The economy is in a contractionary state; many formidable and once-credible "bedrock" institutions have failed amid allegations of major misjudgments and corruption -- and the distinctions between the public and private sectors are becoming increasingly unclear. People tend to be frightened by rapid change and general uncertainty.

Panic makes for some terrible decisionmaking, while maintaining a calm and analytic state of mind while those about us are in a state of irrationality can reveal some contrarian investment bargains. While fear has locked many investors and businesses into a paralytic holding pattern, a distinct minority, virtually a special social class, is quietly buying up controlling stakes and future monopolistic positions in a variety of industries, companies and commodities. This minority, for the most part, is comprised of very wealthy, privileged families...families who have prospered through generation after generation, almost regardless of the political or economic environment. We will refer to them (for the purposes or simplicity) as dynastic families. Their blueblooded names are familiar to many of the rest of us, and they have held tremendous power for quite some time -- centuries, in fact.

I am betting that amongst the pedestrian, "common" population, fear is a far superior motivating force than the promise of an opportunity for gain. I believe that we travel long, circuitous routes in order to avoid confrontation, pain and loss, while we seldom leave the living room couch for an opportunity, which might require effort on our part. Inertia, indolence and a lack of ambition combine to work against the potential efficacy of positive reinforcement, while fear actually creates a physiological reaction (i.e., the secretion of adrenalin, cortisol, etcetera) which actually produces the means for rapid movement in a "fight or flight" response.

The endorphin "rush" produced by the mind's complex neurochemical apparatus is, in contrast, usually much slower to gain a foothold and much weaker in terms of its sway over our responses to the environment and circumstances. It is interesting to note that fear is regarded by many as a visceral reflex, while ambition, and the excitement that accompanies it, is seen to be more of a cerebral, learned action.

Is it possible that the actual physiology of the members of these dynastic families has changed, through some sort of evolutionary genetic mechanism, over the generations? Is it possible that the progenitors who spawned these imperial families started out with an anomalous physiological/ psychological makeup which permitted them to seize ever-increasing stakes of wealth and power while others panicked and fled? Is there a "contrarian gene" that makes these people different, or is it a function of a learned response which is handed down from each generation to its successor?

These few have triumphed through virtually every tragic chapter in the course of Humanity's erratic, ungainly evolution. I am fascinated by the fact that such a small group of persons can continually control the bulk of the world's resources.

These dynastic families all have one thing in common -- they are not motivated by fear.

I am equally fascinated by my almost dull, ho-hum, all-too-calm expectation, in my dual roles as a Strategic Planner and a Futurist, that these dynastic families will become even wealthier and more powerful as a result of the severe economic recession that has befallen us; and that they will emerge, as they always have, with an even greater percentage of the world's wealth when the current crisis has ended. The irony is that these families always benefit by their uncanny ability to maintain their cool in the midst of the confusion -- to make order (and money) out of chaos. This observation has made conspiracy theorists out of many of us. We are indeed, by and large, a fearful group of primitives running from the lightning, while these others are out flying their kites.
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SWINE FLU OUTBREAK ALERT

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Dear Friends:

Please take every possible precaution against contracting or transmitting the deadly Swine Flu virus. Read about what you can do. Let others know -- by email, social media, a telephone call... in any way that you can. Following is an information link:

douglascastleSWINE FLU OUTBREAK ALERT - I just finished a post on http://lifelinksiep.blogspo... about measures we should take. Please forward to all!less than 5 seconds ago from web.

Stay healthy.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

AN UNSETTLING DIALOGUE

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Dear Lena, Yvonne and Friends:

I do not personally like the reality of these tactics in dealing with other people...but they work. In dealing with the real world (which always bothers the heck out of me), I have often found that what I would "like" and what really "is" are two very different things.

Faithfully,

Douglas

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--- On Sun, 4/26/09, Lena Lee Johnson wrote:
From: Lena Lee Johnson Subject: Re: [SPAM] [INTERNAL_ENERGY_PLUS] THREE SIMPLE STEPS TOWARD POWER -- SADLY, THEY WORK.To: INTERNAL_ENERGY_PLUS@yahoogroups.comDate: Sunday, April 26, 2009, 12:56 PM

It is a bitter truth - if someone has left you wondering, worrying and waiting - then they are in control - they have the "power".

--- On Sat, 4/25/09, Yvonne wrote:
From: Yvonne Subject: Re: [SPAM] [INTERNAL_ENERGY_ PLUS] THREE SIMPLE STEPS TOWARD POWER -- SADLY, THEY WORK.To: INTERNAL_ENERGY_ PLUS@yahoogroups .comDate: Saturday, April 25, 2009, 3:43 PM

Dear Douglas,
Sorry to say you have lost me with this one! ???????? What on earth is that supposed to mean?

----- Original Message -----
From: Douglas Castle
To: INTERNAL_ENERGY_ PLUS
Sent: Friday, April 24, 2009 11:20 PM
Subject: [INTERNAL_ENERGY_ PLUS] THREE SIMPLE STEPS TOWARD POWER -- SADLY, THEY WORK.

Dear Readers:

Three steps toward power:

1. LET THEM WAIT.

2. LET THEM WORRY.

3. LET THEM WONDER.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

HATRED LEAVES ITS TATTOO

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To Anyone Reading This:

There was a Holocaust. More than six million men, women and children were exterminated, their bodies carted off like so much garbage, their emaciated, mangled carcasses tossed into ditches and mass graves.

People deny that there was a Holocaust. Even today, as lesser-known, but equally reviling holocausts ("ethnic cleansing," "racial purification," "civilian massacres," "wholesale carnage," and a host of other terms are applied) take place throughout the world. As I sit here. As I write these words. Denial leads to recurrence, to a lack of vigilance, to a trivializing of the monstrous side of Human Nature. A monstrous element that remains unchanged and right beneath the surface of most smiles despite years of civilization and technological advancement. Despite all attempts at education.

Political correctness, semantics and hideous metaphors abound ("The Israelis are worse than the Nazis -- look at how they've slaughtered innocent Palestinians!") to twist the facts so far out of perspective, so inanely out of context, that the truth is trampled. One of my favorites is the now infamous declaration by the great minds of the United Nations that "Zionism is Racism." They might just as easily have declared "Survival is Sin." ...or "Questioning Authority is Terrorism." Hatred is always fashionable. Rationalization is the only thing which is even more fashionable.

It is like a children's game of "telephone"... atrocities are ignored or rationalized while self-preservation is decried as aggression.

I had an eighth-grade teacher with a number tattooed on his forearm. It was noticeable because he would roll up his sleeves when he wrote on the chalkboard. I was mesmerized by it.

He caught me staring once, at the end of class and whispered, devoid of expression, as if all emotion had been wrought from him like the last tears from a hankerchief, "Branded like cattle. They did this to me. People did this to other people. And much, much worse. Much worse." His eyes were focused on some distant point in the past, right through me. I had never seen a person travel back in time before -- I knew then, intuitively, that time travel has always existed.

Tattoos, like old stories, become distorted. But the distortion is only superficial. There are deep, permanent, but unseen burns, cuts and bruises on the inside. On the souls of so many people. They never are fully healed, and they never go away. They are incurable. These scars, like the truth, are forever.

Denial is simply dishonesty.


Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. Please forward this message to everyone you know. Keeping it to yourself is a small, but not inconsequential, act of irresponsibility and inhumanity. These can be habit-forming if permitted.
________________________x
THE NATIONAL NETWORKER








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BEING DECISIVE

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Dear Friends:

I am opposed to unnecessary violence. My primary strategy, and the strategy of all wise commanders is to utilize behavioral psychology and attempt to negotiate for the most advantageous outcome. There are times when this fails, either because the other side refuses to negotiate, or because the demands made by the other side are completely impossible or untenable. My compliments to the U.S. Navy Seals for their judgment and skills in saving an innocent hostage's life. The article which follows appears courtest of Yahoo! News. It is worth reading, not only for its value as news, but for the insights it offers in terms of being decisive and taking command.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

####
US ship captain is freed when snipers kill pirates
By ELIZABETH A. KENNEDY and LARA JAKES, Associated Press Writers Elizabeth A. Kennedy And Lara Jakes, Associated Press Writers 1 hr 2 mins ago

MOMBASA, Kenya – U.S. Navy snipers opened fire and killed three pirates holding an American captain at gunpoint in a lifeboat, delivering the skipper unharmed and ending a five-day high-seas hostage drama on Easter Sunday.
The pirates were pointing AK-47s at Capt. Richard Phillips and he was in "imminent danger" of being killed when the commander of the nearby USS Bainbridge made the split-second decision to order his men to shoot, Vice Adm. Bill Gortney said.
Phillips' crew, who said they had escaped the pirates after he offered himself as a hostage, erupted in cheers aboard their ship in Mombasa, Kenya. Some waved an American flag and fired flares in celebration. A lawn sign in the captain's hometown of Underhill, Vermont that read "Pray for Captain Phillips' release and safe return home" was changed to read, "Capt. Phillips rescued and safe."
The U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet said Phillips, 53, was resting comfortably after a medical exam on the San Diego-based USS Boxer in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Somalia. Gortney said the captain had been "tied up inside the lifeboat" over much of the ordeal.
"I'm just the byline. The real heroes are the Navy, the Seals, those who have brought me home," Phillips said by phone to Maersk Line Limited President and CEO John Reinhart, the company head told reporters. A photo released by the Navy showed Phillips unharmed and shaking hands with the commanding officer of the USS Bainbridge.
Gortney said a fourth pirate had been aboard the Bainbridge and negotiating with the Americans immediately before the rescue. The pirate was in military custody and U.S. officials said no decision had been made about how to charge him or where he could stand trial.
The rescue was a dramatic blow to the pirates who have preyed on international shipping and hold more than a dozen ships with about 230 sailors from a variety of nations. But it also risked provoking retaliatory attacks.
"This could escalate violence in this part of the world, no question about it," said Gortney, the commander of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command.
Jamac Habeb, a 30-year-old self-proclaimed pirate, told The Associated Press from one of Somalia's piracy hubs, Eyl, that, "our friends should have done more to kill the captain before they were killed. This will be a good lesson for us."
"From now on, if we capture foreign ships and their respective countries try to attack us, we will kill them (the hostages)," he said. France and India have both taken deadly military action against pirates in recent months and seen no significant retaliation, however.
The Defense Department twice asked President Barack Obama for permission to use military force to rescue Phillips, most recently late Friday evening, U.S. officials said. On Saturday morning, Obama signed off on the Pentagon's request, as he had a day earlier, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
"I share the country's admiration for the bravery of Capt. Phillips and his selfless concern for his crew," Obama said in his first comments on the situation. "His courage is a model for all Americans."
He added that the United States needs help from other countries to deal with the threat of piracy and to hold pirates accountable.
A spokeswoman for the Phillips family, Alison McColl, said Phillips and his wife, Andrea, spoke by phone shortly after he was freed.
"They're all just so happy and relieved," McColl said outside of the Phillips home in Underhill. "Andrea wanted me to tell the nation that all of your prayers and good wishes have paid off because Capt. Phillips is safe."
The Navy said Phillips was freed at 7:19 p.m. local time.
When Phillips' crew heard the news aboard their ship in the port of Mombasa, they placed an American flag over the rail of the top of the Maersk Alabama and whistled and pumped their fists in the air. Crew fired two bright red flares into the sky from the ship.
"We made it!" said crewman ATM Reza, pumping his fist in the air.
Crew members said their ordeal had begun Wednesday with the Somali pirates hauling themselves up from a small boat bobbing on the surface of the Indian Ocean far below.
As the pirates shot in the air, Phillips told his crew to lock themselves in a cabin and surrendered himself to safeguard his men, crew members said.
Phillips was then held hostage in an enclosed lifeboat that was closely watched by U.S. warships and a helicopter in an increasingly tense standoff.
Capt. Joseph Murphy, the father of second-in-command Shane Murphy, thanked Phillips for his bravery.
"Our prayers have been answered on this Easter Sunday," Murphy said. "If not for his incredible personal sacrifice, this kidnapping and act of terror could have turned out much worse."
Talks to free Phillips began Thursday with the captain of the Bainbridge talking to the pirates under instruction from FBI hostage negotiators on board the U.S. destroyer.
The U.S. Navy assumed the pirates would try to get their hostage to shore, where they could have hidden him on Somalia's lawless soil and been in a stronger position to negotiate a ransom. The pirates had threatened to kill Phillips if attacked.
Phillips jumped out of the lifeboat Friday and tried to swim for his freedom but was recaptured when a pirate fired an automatic weapon at or near him, according to U.S. Defense Department officials.
Elsewhere off the Somali coast Friday, the French navy freed a sailboat seized off Somalia by other pirates, but one of the five hostages was killed.
Early Saturday three U.S. warships were within easy reach of the lifeboat and the pirates holding Phillips fired a few shots at a small U.S. Navy vessel that had approached, a U.S. military official said.
The official said the U.S. sailors did not return fire, the Navy vessel turned away and no one was hurt. He said the vessel had not been attempting a rescue.
The district commissioner of Somalia's central Mudug region said talks on freeing Phillips had gone on all day Saturday, with clan elders from his area talking by satellite telephone and through a translator with Americans, but collapsed Saturday night.
About the same time, Phillips' crew of 19 American sailors reached safe harbor in Kenya's northeast port of Mombasa under guard of U.S. Navy Seals.
"The Somali government wanted the drama to end in a peaceful way, but any one who is involved in this latest case had the choice to use violence or other means," Abdulkhadir Walayo, the prime minister's spokesman, told the AP. "Any way, we see it will be a good lesson for the pirates or any one else involved in this dirty business."
Residents of Harardhere, another port and pirate stronghold, were gathering in the streets after news of the captain's release, saying they fear pirates may now retaliate against some of the 200 hostages they still hold.
"We fear more that any revenge taken by the pirates against foreign nationals could bring more attacks from the foreign navies, perhaps on our villages," Abdullahi Haji Jama, who owns a clothes store in Harardhere, told the AP by telephone.
Pirates are holding about a dozen ships with more than 200 crew members, according to the Malaysia-based piracy watchdog International Maritime Bureau. Hostages are from Bulgaria, China, Germany, Indonesia, Italy, the Philippines, Russia, Taiwan, Tuvalu and Ukraine, among other countries.
A spokesman for the German anti-piracy operation told the AP that the U.S. did not give any clue as to its plans in regard to the ship captain.
He had no details on the fate of the German freighter Hansa Stavanger, which was captured earlier this month or on the fate of its 24 crew of five Germans, three Russians, two Ukrainians, two Filipinos and 12 Tuvalu residents.
___
Jakes reported from Washington. Associated Press writers who contributed to this report include Mohamed Olad Hassan and Mohamed Sheikh Nor in Mogadishu, Somalia; Michelle Faul and Tom Maliti in Nairobi, Kenya; Matt Apuzzo in Washington, John Curran in Underhill, Vermont, Matt Moore in Berlin and Dena Potter in Norfolk, Virginia.
Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.

THINKING ABOUT THE UNTHINKABLE

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Dear Friends:

One can and does, paradoxically, think about the "unthinkable". You have to visualize, at minimum, the terrors which you dare not venture to think about, and in so doing, you have given them the keys to the darkest corridors of your imagination. We often term things"unthinkable" simple because they are unconscionable, terrifying or of consquences that we are unprepared to contend with. Everything, de facto, is thinkable.

Let's exercise our ability to anticipate that which we should not dare to anticipate, discuss it (hypothetically, of course), and address it (either standing upright, or from under the bed).

Join me:

1. Giant computer service providers like Google and Yahoo (to name only two) have access to as much information about every individual computer user, credit card user, property owner, bank account holder, taxpayer, scofflaw, outlaw, porno-downloader, consumer and other person who has transacted something as seemingly inconsequential as filling up his or her gastank or walking into a 7-11 for a Slurpee than the NSA does. And these companies not only have all of our identity information, but they have all of our passcodes. If they chose to, they could literally take over our identities and our entire lives -- we are at their mercy, and we trust them. The government relies upon them, utilizes their systems, and by simple logic, cannot police them -- nor would they be inclined to. We are in a naked society. We are, by a lack of vision and vigilance, targets. As with Samson and Delilah, persons or organizations comprised of persons will always use the power that they are given...it is Human Nature. It is only a matter of time.


2. Your credit rating, long regarded as so precious, so sacred and so crucial to a respectable existence, is a nostalgic farce. Credit card companies are aggressively cutting credit lines without adequate cause or notice, and leaving their cardholders with miniscule credit lines, sudden "overdrafts" and "over limit drafts," and are actually charging them fees, as they deprive them of credit and irreparably blemish the credit reports issued to the three major credit bureaus with unexplained reductions in credit lines, overdrafts and all other manner of default. Your credit rating, if you are like most people in the United states, will be destroyed. But take heart -- the financial institutions are not interested in extending credit to consumers anymore. You credit rating may well become as meaningless and as vestigial as the batting average of a pet shop owner. Remember Mr. Peebles? Magilla Gorilla has been repossessed.


3. The IRS, which is a contractor and not even a righteous government agency, is hell-bent on collecting money from an all-but-destitute society. They are, practically speaking, immune to due process, and charged with the responsiblity of feeding the government so that it may be fruitful and multiply (in size and deficit). They can assess you any tax which they feel "may be due," levy and lien any of your assets without contest, charge you usurious interest and fees on spuriously determined delinquent amounts. In fact, in a soon-to-be cashless society, they will be undoubtedly given the power to directly debit sums, as they judge appropriate, directly from your bank accounts (and the banks are actually an extension of the Executive Branch of government) -- if they are wrong (and they are wrong most of the time), you'll have to retain counsel to fight back...ironically, as your funds have already been depleted, you won't have the money required to retain a lawyer. Talk about irony! Going further, be advised that your cash will all have to be declared and banked before a critical date when paper currency is rendered illegal. This will make things easier for the DEA, the FBI, The Treasury Department, The Secret Service and all of the other agencies that are chartered to investigate, confiscate, eviscerate and incarcerate. We will be afforded the opportunity to commiserate. That will be our only "-ate".

4. Private enterprise will cease to exist as it becomes fused with the government. Any conventional employment will, in effect, be government work. Think of Huricane Katrina on a national level. The only "free enterprise" will be small and entrepreneurial. Genius and spontaneity will become increasingly persecuted, and often forced into hiding by a government and a social establishment in fear of being posed with "dangerous" questions which might lead to "revolutionary" actions.

5. That last sanctuary and sanctum of privacy, your cranial vault, will remain the last repository of original, "unthinkable" thought. The trouble which I foresee, is the most frightening thing that I have ever envisioned -- it may reach a point, within your own mind, when you have become so indoctrinated with "groupthink" and assumption that you are no longer able to determine which thoughts are genuinely your own, and which are deeply implanted through pervasive, invasive external influence.

Have a wonderful day.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

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