Showing posts with label behavioral psychology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label behavioral psychology. Show all posts

Monday, August 27, 2012

Leaders And Policy-Making: Understanding Cause And Effect

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Please click on the image above to see a larger, more readily legible version of the graph
Leaders are called upon to make policy decisions. These decisions, as well as their enactment (promulgation, enforcement, monitoring, refinement), will, in great part define the success of a leader, and will be his or greatest legacy. In making policy, the person setting the framework of regulation or command must understand all of the significant situational and circumstantial aspects of the variables which affect the issue.

In establishing policy, one must constantly and consciously separate his or her opinion of the ideal situation with the proven facts. The acceptance and cold understanding of the parameters of reality will often determine the success or failure of any policy.

The following is excerpted from a recent post published in The Global Futurist Blog. Unfortunately, it focuses (of necessity) on the infamous and much-politicized gun control debate in the United States:
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In the united States, the issue of Gun Control has been a hotly contested and largely politicized one for many years. You hear multiple sound bites (or bytes):

"We need to get the guns off the streets -- gun violence is killing people"; "Guns don't kill people. People kill people. If they don't have guns, they'll use some other weapon."; "The Constitution cites the right, of the People, 'to own and bear arms' -- with gun control laws, innocent, decent civilians won't be able to get guns for self-defense, but the criminals who intend harm will keep getting them anyway.";"How can I defend myself if I am attacked -- the police get there after the crime has happened... what will they do then? Draw a chalk line around my body?"; "If the bullying criminals knew that civilians were likely to be armed, they would be less likely to prey on us and victimize us."

I personally believe that Human beings make choices. If you give a person a gun, it doesn't make him or her into an attacker. I also believe, as an economist, in the law of supply and demand; if people didn't want guns, they (the guns) would be economically eliminated from the marketplace. As a martial artist, I know that virtually any tool can be turned into a weapon... it just requires a bit of hasty ingenuity and the presence of a threat.

Weapons are merely an extension of Human nature. Some people carry them to inflict harm, some people carry them so that they can defend themselves in the event of a clear threat. I believe that Human Nature is more of an issue (in terms of gun control) than the laws which are passed in never-ending attempts to control it. Human beings ultimately exercise free will in making all of their decisions, the law notwithstanding. Our society is not controlled by regulations and laws; it is ultimately controlled by economics and the Human behavioral psyche. Unless you can control people, gun control just won't work.

If the government cannot protect me, I believe that I have a right (psychologically hard-wired into me) to self-defense in the interest of my own survival. I will not surrender that right.

If guns are available, the best we can hope to do is carefully screen prospective purchasers, and be certain that they receive some training in the use of these weapons. I don't stand with either the NRA or with the ACLU on the issue of gun control. I actually believe the point is moot, and that the Pandora's box of weaponry has already been opened.

Here's my apolitical take: Making all civilian guns illegal will simply 1) drive up the price of guns as a commodity, and that 2) weapons dealers, like drug dealers, will benefit far more than the Public-At-Large.

Here's a recent article about the "massacre" at the Empire State Building which is really worth reading: NYPD police officers responding and reacting to the lone gunman threat are responsible for all nine civilians injured during the Empire State Building incident.

As I have said before, maybe it's time that we, as a society, stop in our denial of the laws of economics and Human psychology and accept the reality of our situation and circumstances.

Solving problems starts with understanding their true causes, and by then addressing them.

I don't necessarily trust my fellow Humans (which sounds sexist - I mean to include females here as well [I am grinning]), but I do trust in my own ability to discern right from wrong, and I know that I would feel safer if I were armed and properly trained, than if I were not. 

That's it.

Douglas E. Castle for The Daily Burst Of Brilliance Blog and for The Taking Command Blog
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If you are to make policy as a leader, or execute or enforce policy as a commander, you must deal with reality, and only reality, in order to meet your goals and objectives in either creating rules or in seeing to their enforcement. Otherwise, you are either wasting your precious time in the wonderland of your own imagination, or you are catering to a political agenda instead of an operational one.

You must focus on the Laws of Physics, practical economics and the body of knowledge as it relates to Human behavioral psychology if you are to make or enact policy. If you fail to take these three sets of variables into account, your policy certainly fail.
 


TAKING COMMAND!

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Monday, December 28, 2009

Never Tell Your Adversaries What You're Planning To Do.

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Never Tell Your Adversaries What You're Planning To Do:
A Foolish Move On The Part Of The US President.

Dear Friends:

Not too long ago, President Barack Obama and the current US presidential administration announced to the entire banking community that "there will be serious reforms enacted in the consumer credit industry to stop the abuse of the public by credit card lenders." A loudly telegraphed threat, taken by its targets as 1) a helpful warning to give them time to prepare their defenses, and 2) an opportunity to exponentially increase the scale, audacity and variety of abusive charges, sudden interest rate hikes, credit line reductions, fees for every "offense" (real or imagined) and destroyed consumer credit reports. In brief, the banks saw this as a (wink wink) hint to go hog wild at the expense of the consumers and to profiteer to the greatest extent imaginable. Without delay, compunction or conscience, these parasitic plastic panderers proceeded to profit at the expense of the already distressed masses of credit card victims.

Thanks to a well-intended but somewhat unsophisticated Mr. Barck Obama, the banks are stealing enough in fee income from credit card holders that they can pay back their Tarp obligations, raise the salaries of the money gluttons up to (and beyond) their historic maximums, and continue to buy government debt instruments without extending new credit to businesses or consumers.

Consumers are being hurt more deeply by the banking sector and the credit card issuers than ever before. The President of the United States essentially declared it "open season" on the American population. And the consumers are suffering more abuse than ever since the invention of the credit card.

Loud, idle threats always backfire. And only a fool warns his enemies of his intentions to take action against them.

Is anybody listening? Take a look at your credit card statements and wake up.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle


Braintenance - Stay razor sharp.
The Internationalist Page - A world without barriers.
The Global Futurist - Revealing trends.
Taking Command! - Mastering your fate.



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Tuesday, September 08, 2009

EMOTION IN BUSINESS - THE DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD

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EMOTION IN BUSINESS - THE DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD

This article contains references and hyperlinks to an article which was originally published in THE NATIONAL NETWORKER Newsletter (September, 2009, Week 1) by Featured Columnist Douglas Castle.

Dear Colleagues:

My brief +/- 140-character broadcast on Twitter read as follows:

"Passion fuels a business, but an emotional attachment to a bad decision can undo it all. Douglas Castle http://twitlik.com/Sunk  #TNNW " Please read the article, and give me your candid feedback.

The article is titled "Don't Keep Watering a Dead Tree," and it deals with a problem that I have seen in virtually every professional career and in every business. We have a very Human propensity to start a business out of passion (not unlike adolescent infatuation), and then to mess things up in increments, over time, by making bad decisions and continuing to support them. My favorite example was a software development company client which had spent well over its budget on a particular type of packaged program that was already becoming obsolete in the marketplace. Demand for the product, which was not quite complete, was diminishing daily as the market turned toward a different technology.

Despite this knowledge, the directors of the company, all very good technical programmers, were obsessed with "seeing the project through." [not unlike deciding to go to the beach after it has begun to drizzle because you'd already packed your cooler] 

They not only failed to cut their losses, but they continued to overspend their budget and neglect their core business. They were in Chapter 11 six months later. This is extremely common. My questions for the Group are:

1.     How do we increase our own awareness of this tendency?
2.     How do we differentiate between a "loss" and an "opportunity-in-progress?"
3.     Is it helpful to create a rule (i.e., a budget) which absolutely limits time and money on any project, regardless of how "close" we feel that we are getting to victory?
4.     What are some of the excuses that we use to justify throwing good money after bad?
5.     Many people believe that most businesses fail because of inadequate capitalization. Is it possible that an even greater percentage fail because of reluctance to acknowledge mistakes and change course?

I would truly appreciate your insights as well as your review of the article.

Thank you.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

TNNW BUZZWORKS



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Tuesday, June 23, 2009

SUBLIMINAL and NON-VERBAL MESSAGES

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From a recent message on TWITTER: To what extent are you being influenced by subliminal and non-verbal messages? http://aboutDouglasCastle.b... #TNNW #IEP #Obama.

Note: If in excess of 80% of all interpersonal communication is non-verbal (or not consciously perceivable), its influence is pervasive. If you understood it better, you could very likely 1) recognize your own responses to it, and 2) use it as a tool to gain much better control of negotiations, presentations and every other type of social and business exchange. Would you like to learn more? Would you like to wield this power? It does not involve witchcraft, voodoo or the supernatural. It is simply a product of applied science...

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle
http://aboutDouglasCastle.blogspot.com
http://TakingCommand.blogspot.com
http://TheNationalNetworkerWeblog.blogspot.com




A NOTE ABOUT HYPERLINKS:
In some of the short newsfeed postings (in particular, those from http://htxt.it/), the hyperlinks are not live. They are not dead -- no, they are merely sleeping. To awaken them, just copy them (Ctrl+C) and paste them (Ctrl+V) into your browser and press the "go" button...the sleeping link will immediately come to life and you'll be directed to the proper page so that you can read the referenced article or posting.

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Keywords for this post: subliminal messages, non-verbal communication, blogs by Douglas Castle, effective influence, Humanitas Maximus, manipulation, negotiation, seduction, persuasion, behavioral psychology, power, applied science.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

ORDER OUT OF CHAOS - A Socio-Economic and Behavioral Commentary

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ORDER OUT OF CHAOS - A SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND BEHAVIORAL COMMENTARY

Throughout the United States and the rest of the world that surrounds us (I sound a bit paranoic, don't I?), people are frightened. The economy is in a contractionary state; many formidable and once-credible "bedrock" institutions have failed amid allegations of major misjudgments and corruption -- and the distinctions between the public and private sectors are becoming increasingly unclear. People tend to be frightened by rapid change and general uncertainty.

Panic makes for some terrible decisionmaking, while maintaining a calm and analytic state of mind while those about us are in a state of irrationality can reveal some contrarian investment bargains. While fear has locked many investors and businesses into a paralytic holding pattern, a distinct minority, virtually a special social class, is quietly buying up controlling stakes and future monopolistic positions in a variety of industries, companies and commodities. This minority, for the most part, is comprised of very wealthy, privileged families...families who have prospered through generation after generation, almost regardless of the political or economic environment. We will refer to them (for the purposes or simplicity) as dynastic families. Their blueblooded names are familiar to many of the rest of us, and they have held tremendous power for quite some time -- centuries, in fact.

I am betting that amongst the pedestrian, "common" population, fear is a far superior motivating force than the promise of an opportunity for gain. I believe that we travel long, circuitous routes in order to avoid confrontation, pain and loss, while we seldom leave the living room couch for an opportunity, which might require effort on our part. Inertia, indolence and a lack of ambition combine to work against the potential efficacy of positive reinforcement, while fear actually creates a physiological reaction (i.e., the secretion of adrenalin, cortisol, etcetera) which actually produces the means for rapid movement in a "fight or flight" response.

The endorphin "rush" produced by the mind's complex neurochemical apparatus is, in contrast, usually much slower to gain a foothold and much weaker in terms of its sway over our responses to the environment and circumstances. It is interesting to note that fear is regarded by many as a visceral reflex, while ambition, and the excitement that accompanies it, is seen to be more of a cerebral, learned action.

Is it possible that the actual physiology of the members of these dynastic families has changed, through some sort of evolutionary genetic mechanism, over the generations? Is it possible that the progenitors who spawned these imperial families started out with an anomalous physiological/ psychological makeup which permitted them to seize ever-increasing stakes of wealth and power while others panicked and fled? Is there a "contrarian gene" that makes these people different, or is it a function of a learned response which is handed down from each generation to its successor?

These few have triumphed through virtually every tragic chapter in the course of Humanity's erratic, ungainly evolution. I am fascinated by the fact that such a small group of persons can continually control the bulk of the world's resources.

These dynastic families all have one thing in common -- they are not motivated by fear.

I am equally fascinated by my almost dull, ho-hum, all-too-calm expectation, in my dual roles as a Strategic Planner and a Futurist, that these dynastic families will become even wealthier and more powerful as a result of the severe economic recession that has befallen us; and that they will emerge, as they always have, with an even greater percentage of the world's wealth when the current crisis has ended. The irony is that these families always benefit by their uncanny ability to maintain their cool in the midst of the confusion -- to make order (and money) out of chaos. This observation has made conspiracy theorists out of many of us. We are indeed, by and large, a fearful group of primitives running from the lightning, while these others are out flying their kites.
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Sunday, April 19, 2009

SILVER OR LEAD, REVISITED

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Dear Friends:

After living for a goodly span of time, I have learned, lamentably, that virtually every human being can be bought. It is usually an issue of price. Sometimes, where greed is the principal motivator, the price must be negotiated and paid to someone in order to have him (or her) "set aside" his or her principles or responsibilities. Where fear is the principal motivator (and it is a faster and generally more effective motivator than greed, requiring less negotiation, and putting one's self at less risk, as any old-school mobster or modern day drug lord will tell you), it is simply a matter of the threat of taking something valuable away.

The best approach tends to be a combination of the above two -- "silver or lead" (plata o plomo). In an extreme example, a government employee is given a choice of receiving a tremendous payment in cash, or having his wife hospitalized. The broader the lattitude between the silver and the lead, the more powerful the inducement.

The most dangerous persons are those who have a perception of nothing to lose (and no fear of death, personally), who are completely unattached emotionally, and who are not greedy -- they cannot be manipulated, they are just too cold. And in some negotiations, ice is far more powerful than fire.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle
p.s. Apologies to the late Poet Laureate Robert Frost.
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Wednesday, March 18, 2009

THINKING ABOUT THE UNTHINKABLE

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Dear Friends:

One can and does, paradoxically, think about the "unthinkable". You have to visualize, at minimum, the terrors which you dare not venture to think about, and in so doing, you have given them the keys to the darkest corridors of your imagination. We often term things"unthinkable" simple because they are unconscionable, terrifying or of consquences that we are unprepared to contend with. Everything, de facto, is thinkable.

Let's exercise our ability to anticipate that which we should not dare to anticipate, discuss it (hypothetically, of course), and address it (either standing upright, or from under the bed).

Join me:

1. Giant computer service providers like Google and Yahoo (to name only two) have access to as much information about every individual computer user, credit card user, property owner, bank account holder, taxpayer, scofflaw, outlaw, porno-downloader, consumer and other person who has transacted something as seemingly inconsequential as filling up his or her gastank or walking into a 7-11 for a Slurpee than the NSA does. And these companies not only have all of our identity information, but they have all of our passcodes. If they chose to, they could literally take over our identities and our entire lives -- we are at their mercy, and we trust them. The government relies upon them, utilizes their systems, and by simple logic, cannot police them -- nor would they be inclined to. We are in a naked society. We are, by a lack of vision and vigilance, targets. As with Samson and Delilah, persons or organizations comprised of persons will always use the power that they are given...it is Human Nature. It is only a matter of time.


2. Your credit rating, long regarded as so precious, so sacred and so crucial to a respectable existence, is a nostalgic farce. Credit card companies are aggressively cutting credit lines without adequate cause or notice, and leaving their cardholders with miniscule credit lines, sudden "overdrafts" and "over limit drafts," and are actually charging them fees, as they deprive them of credit and irreparably blemish the credit reports issued to the three major credit bureaus with unexplained reductions in credit lines, overdrafts and all other manner of default. Your credit rating, if you are like most people in the United states, will be destroyed. But take heart -- the financial institutions are not interested in extending credit to consumers anymore. You credit rating may well become as meaningless and as vestigial as the batting average of a pet shop owner. Remember Mr. Peebles? Magilla Gorilla has been repossessed.


3. The IRS, which is a contractor and not even a righteous government agency, is hell-bent on collecting money from an all-but-destitute society. They are, practically speaking, immune to due process, and charged with the responsiblity of feeding the government so that it may be fruitful and multiply (in size and deficit). They can assess you any tax which they feel "may be due," levy and lien any of your assets without contest, charge you usurious interest and fees on spuriously determined delinquent amounts. In fact, in a soon-to-be cashless society, they will be undoubtedly given the power to directly debit sums, as they judge appropriate, directly from your bank accounts (and the banks are actually an extension of the Executive Branch of government) -- if they are wrong (and they are wrong most of the time), you'll have to retain counsel to fight back...ironically, as your funds have already been depleted, you won't have the money required to retain a lawyer. Talk about irony! Going further, be advised that your cash will all have to be declared and banked before a critical date when paper currency is rendered illegal. This will make things easier for the DEA, the FBI, The Treasury Department, The Secret Service and all of the other agencies that are chartered to investigate, confiscate, eviscerate and incarcerate. We will be afforded the opportunity to commiserate. That will be our only "-ate".

4. Private enterprise will cease to exist as it becomes fused with the government. Any conventional employment will, in effect, be government work. Think of Huricane Katrina on a national level. The only "free enterprise" will be small and entrepreneurial. Genius and spontaneity will become increasingly persecuted, and often forced into hiding by a government and a social establishment in fear of being posed with "dangerous" questions which might lead to "revolutionary" actions.

5. That last sanctuary and sanctum of privacy, your cranial vault, will remain the last repository of original, "unthinkable" thought. The trouble which I foresee, is the most frightening thing that I have ever envisioned -- it may reach a point, within your own mind, when you have become so indoctrinated with "groupthink" and assumption that you are no longer able to determine which thoughts are genuinely your own, and which are deeply implanted through pervasive, invasive external influence.

Have a wonderful day.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

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