Dear Friends (and Worthy Opponents):
Every sentient creature (i.e., virus, protozoan, malignant tumor, weasel, human, family, company, religious group, government agency or organization of any sort) is possessed of a compulsion to grow. Whether the impetus is species survival, dynastic permanence, the lust for conquest, greed for acquisition, insatiable appetite, increased size and commensurate strength, pure egomania --the compulsion is there. Organizations are indeed creatures -- and they have minds, and agendas, and, yes....compulsions. There is also a deeply ingrained and universal growth propellant: the fearful notion that stagnation (e.g., non-growth) leads to death.
Certain considerations may parametrically govern organizational or social movement growth, and the manner in which growth can or should preferably be achieved. These have to with such constraints as 1) quality standards, 2) availability of and access to candidates for recruitment, 3) ease of recruitment process, 4) ease of training, 5) time required to train, 6) "dead links" (where a recruit does not continue the recruitment process through resignation, death or disability, and becomes, in effect, a "dead end", 7) "lost links" (where a recruit resigns, or leaves the program or organization), and 8) average downline recruitment rate (e.g., how many new recruits an "average" given recruit can directly acquire for the organization or social movement).
These same mathematical principles are at play in population growth, the spread of infectious diseases, Multi-Level Marketing programs, those annoying chain letters, compound interest, and a host of natural phenomena. They have been studied and written about by the likes of Malthus, Einstein, Fibonacci, Chrichton....from philosophers, to mathematicians, to economists to science fiction writers.
The math is very simple if there are no dead links or lost links:
1) If the reproduction/replication/downline recruitment rate is 2, then 1 original member begets two, 2 beget 4, 4 beget 8, and so forth. In five generations, the total population will be 31 members.
2) If the reproduction/replication/downline recruitment rate is 2, but there are 5 original members, the above result is simply multiplied by 5. In five generations, the total population will be 155 members.
3) If the reproduction/replication/downline recruitment rate is 3, then 1 original member begets three, 3 beget 9, 9 beget 27, and so forth. In five generations, the total population will be 121 members.
4) If the reproduction/replication/downline recruitment rate is 3, but there are 5 original members, the above result is simply multiplied by 5. In five generations, the total population will be 605 members.
The dynamics of the process are explosive. Do you remember the movie PAY IT FORWARD?
You might wish to take a look at http://www.otherwise.com/population/exponent.html to see this in greater detail.
Getting to the task of growing an organization, enterprise, social movement, or just spreading a message, the following steps and considerations are required:
1. Establish your precise program and platform, simplify it, quantify it and codify it;
2. Establish minimal quality control standards for recruits;
3. Establish, unify and energize the largest original core group;
4. Create mandates (negative reinforcement) and incentives (positive reinforcement) for recruitment, and for retention of recruits;
5. Establish and codify your methods for recruitment, and train all recruits -- you are teaching teachers to teach subsequent teachers;
6. Establish a realistic replication rate. If you challenge each member to proselytize 2 members, your growth rate is going to be very slow. If you challenge each member to proselytize 20 members, you are being wholly unrealistic. THE OPTIMAL REPLICATION NUMBERS ARE 3, 5 and 7. If you tell each member to recruit (identify, pursuade, train, manage and retain) 5 new members, you are dealing with a manageable number, in that each person generally has five persons wityhin his or her social or business circle who are like-minded and viable.
7. Keep track of your metrics in terms of who recruited whom;
8. Continually promote the issue and importance of recruitment, and constantly reinforce recruitment training;
9. Open up channels of communication from the core group all the way down to the newest recruits. Use these channels. They are socially and emotionally adhesive.
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
