Thursday, September 30, 2010

Trend Bulletin (09.28.2010): Consolidation, Monopolization and REAL Inflation.

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TREND BULLETIN (09.28.2010): Consolidation, Monopolization and REAL Inflation
For THE GLOBAL FUTURIST and THE TNNWC DAILY NEWS FEED by Douglas Castle



[Above Illustration Courtesy of CRAIN'S NEW YORK BUSINESS]
---------------

Dear Friends, Futurists and Entrepreneurs:

Wall Street and Washington (through the US Federal Reserve Board) tell us that their is no danger of inflation during the course of the "foreseeable future" and that key interest rates will be held stable in the absence of a threat and in order to aid in the economic recovery believed by many to be occurring within the United States.

The classical example of inflation ("Classic Inflation") is a decrease in the value of currency such that more of it is required to purchase the same goods as could be purchased with a lesser amount previously.

The picture that is frequently painted is that of some defeated man or woman pushing a bushel basket filled with paper currency (usually US dollar bills) to the supermarket in order to buy a loaf of bread.

A note of caution is in order -- a very misleading "seeming deflation" can be created in a situation where there is insufficient available income (amongst consumers) to purchase goods or services at any price. That is to say, by way of illustration, that if I am unemployed and you (an aggressive and optimistic real estate broker) are showing me a house that sold four years ago for $500,000 which is now on the market for a mere $50,000, I still won't buy it. The marketplace, driven by desperation from the "sell side" starts lowering prices in order to clear inventory, but, ironically, regardless of how low the prices fall, too few people have adequate money (due to unemployment, vanishing pensions, decimated retirement funds, and the like) to make these purchases at any price. And these prices are part of the  market basket of goods and services that the government uses in order to determine inflation.

Theoretically (or actually), a nation can be experiencing "seeming deflation" even when the average family barely has adequate funds to pay for the barest of necessities.

In fact, because of business consolidations (where giant companies buy other giant companies, as in the case of Unilever negotiating to Purchase Alberto-Culver, or Southwest Airlines negotiating to acquire or merge with AirTran), marketplace competition is being eliminated due to fewer and fewer choices, and the consuming public is being increasingly faced with sharply rising grocery costs, airfares and the like -- as the quality of goods and services declines and as actual incomes and wealth decline. The reality is that when large companies combine, many jobs are lost.

Being a simple person myself, I look at the inflation situation simply: If I have lost my job, and I don't have any money, I cannot afford to subsist regardless of how much prices fall. I actually feel the full effect of inflation (i.e., I cannot put together enough cash to pay the mortgage, pay the note on the car and to feed my family) while the government is telling me good news about how we are in a period of either deflation or stabilizing prices...I cannot afford to send my children to college, and even if they were to get massive scholarships to most universities, they would not be able to get decent entry-level (or any-level) jobs upon graduation.

The tough reality on Main Street is that REAL inflation, the kind that severely and adversely impacts consumers, is actually climbing despite that CLASSICAL inflation (an economic notion that doesn't apply when unemployment and under-employment are quite high and continuing to increase). Using numbers, if my income decreases 100%, and the price of food remains 'stable' or increases 'modestly', I feel the same effect as if I were living in an economy where hyperinflation was in the newspaper headlines.

This situation does not improve if jobs are fewer and declining, but certain specialty positions are commanding higher salaries. If the interest rates charged by banks are at an all-time low but they are not making credit available to me, I cannot afford many of the necessary things which I purchased using credit before... things like my home, my car, my appliances.

When large stores which sell durable goods are advertising plans where you can purchase something today on a "layaway plan" where no payments are required for 12 or 18 months, and afterwards you (the lucky consumer!) can pay the balance off in non-interest-bearing installments, I do not see a great opportunity or a sign of economic recovery if I do not actually anticipate the ability to be able to make the first payments when they begin in a year and a half because I don't know if I'll be employed at that time. That is the reality.

I do not need to read The Financial Times or The Wall Street Journal once the prices of the things that they quote have become irrelevant to me.

No bargain is a bargain when I do not have a job, a positive prospect for a job, or any savings.

Broke is broke.

Forecast: Over the next 18 months, anticipate the following in the US, and in its industrialized European counterparts:
  • More mergers and consolidations;
  • Fewer permanent jobs, and a decrease in "real salaries" and "real income" (unless you work for Goldman...);
  • Rising prices on necessities;
  • A continuing reduction in the availability of consumer and small business credit;
  • Marginal businesses failing at an increasing rate;
  • A decline in the number of students graduating college, and a greater portion of students (at an older median age than that which had historically been associated with college attendance);
  • An increase in taking a year or two off (to work, travel, or live off of their parents or with friends) after high-school;
  • A significant increase in trade school advertising, and in people graduating with certificates instead of degrees;
  • Fewer divorces (due to the expense); and fewer office or workplace extramarital affairs (due to the expense and the decline in workplace attendance);
  • Declines in the quality of the customer service experience;
  • Very expensive airfares;
  • The beginnings of a precipitous rise in gasoline and fossil-fuel products -- an ominous sign of both REAL and CLASSICAL inflation on the way, and impacting the prices of everything;
  • A sharp increase in the cost of healthcare and healthcare insurance;
  • An increase in the percentage of suicides amongst two groups of segments of the population -- college-aged youth and Baby Boomers;
  • An increase in crime across all categories;
  • The disappearance of an increasing number of paper publications (mostly periodicals, journals and the like).
Who will fare best during the next 18 months, given this short-run futurescape?

Those who will fare best will likely be: frugal trust-fund offspring of dynastic families; directors and executive officers of the largest corporations, especially financial, pharmaceutical and oil conglomerates; healthcare professionals; certain licensed tradespersons (plumbers, for instance); cerebrotonic computer geeks; and, of course, intrepid entrepreneurs --my favorite group of people, and my greatest hope for the future.

Where there is entrepreneurship, there is great hope. Hope is so very important.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle, for

TNNWC Group, LLC (http://www.tnnwcgroup.com/) and The Global Futurist (http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com/)
---------------

Labels, Tags, Key Words and Reference Terms For This Article: unemployment, financial and investment trends, inflation,  consolidations, mergers, prices, declining real income, Real Inflation, Classical Inflation, entrepreneurship,The Global Futurist, The National Networker Weekly Newsletter, DouglasCastleBlogosphere, business plans, business planning.


Douglas Castle
Toll-Free Telephone: 888.317.6498
Facsimile: 914.517.5944
Become a Member Of TNNWC Group: http://bit.ly/JoinTNNWC


Douglas Castle

Toll-Free Telephone: 888.317.6498

Facsimile: 914.517.5944

Linked In Profile: http://www.LinkedIn.com/in/douglascastle  

Become a Member Of TNNWC Group: http://bit.ly/JoinTNNWC

BLOGS: http://TheGlobalFuturist.blogspot.com, http://TheInternationalistPage.blogspot.com, http://Braintenance.blogspot.com, http://aboutDouglasCastle.blogspot.com

Return Email: douglas.castle@yahoo.com

 

Sunday, September 26, 2010

The Five Types Of Threatening Personalities - Identify and Prepare

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THE FIVE TYPES OF THREATENING PERSONALITIES
Identify Them and Prepare Yourself

Written by Douglas Castle for Taking Command! at http://TakingCommand.blogspot.com




Ironic Note: You come into contact with all five types almost daily.

Observation: These types of personalities are ultimately either institutionalized, or become powerful role-models, cult-leaders or business magnates. Extremes.

Examples: BOLO ("Be On The LookOut") ALERT - spend a day commingling with a nice, mixed group of people, and you will see each of these types represented -- I'll let you sort out which is which.

Vigilance: Each of us has harbors each of these propensities to some extent. We control them, we contain them, but sometimes a major life event pushes these demons into positions of dangerous control within us.

Dear Readers:

The people whom we are inclined to fear, and who, sadly come to dominate our lives and the world in which we live are categorized below. Learn to recognize them, to either avoid or counterstrike them, and to navigate a world filled with a far greater percentage of them in the Human population than we would care to believe. But then, Taking Command assumes and requires that we recognize reality, accept it, findways to contend with it, and, to the extent which we are able, to change that reality to conform to our standards.

The cast of characters:

1. The violent psychotic, filled with paranoic delusions, feeling persecuted and injured, and perceiving constant threats. If he is outspoken and articulate, he may become a cult leader or a folk legend. If he cannot interact at all with others, he will commit acts of violence (homicidal and suicidal), and be incarcerated or otherwise institutionalized if his family lacks sufficient resources to keep him clear of the System's web;

2. The sociopath who can be charming as needed but will do whatever he requires in order to manipulate people and circumstances to his advantage. He is unencumbered by a conscience, is an imaginative and convincing liar, and he can always justify, within himself, the damages he causes to others. He is driven by selfishness;

3. The scheming plotters and planners who are quite visibly malevolent, but who are obsessed with their own success and gain, almost as they are obsessed with hurting others in the process. They do not use guile and charm. They are often obvious about their motives (no matter how savage or socially unacceptable), and they will do whatever it takes to achieve them. They do not care about convincing others -- they are insularly self-righteous, and driven by a combination of needing to dominate and needing to inflict pain -- to sacrifice others in the interest of personal gain is the optimal amalgam of both motivations;

4. The abusive, opportunistic energy vampire. These are people who will impose upon you (often using flattery, deceitfulness, pity) to do things for them. Their principle objective is transfer their burdensome responsibilities onto you, and to pay you in the most valueless currency possible in return. There is no meaningful exchange or reciprocity offered. These people also like to get free samples, terminate relationships when they become obligated to begin making payment, fail to repay debts, complain endlessly about how they "counted on you but you disappointed them," bend your ear with their tales of hardship and woe, and become notably scarce when their help or efforts are required.

5. The socially-disconnected psychopath who does not even comprehend the notion of consequences resulting from his actions, takes brazen risks (often due to an unreasonable lack of fear, combined with compulsiveness to address his immediate needs), and has a depraved indifference to the suffering of others. He is completely indifferent. There is no bargaining with him. He does not have any awareness, much less a conscience, regarding life or property. He lives in the compulsive present, with no connection to the future, or to other living creatures. For this individual, there is no wrong or right -- there is only hunger, and a need to quickly satisfy it.
---------------

Learn to recognize these potentialities in others, and learn to see them in yourself, as well.

Conclusion: Know who you really are (understand yourself with as much critical objectivity as is humanly possible), see others for whom they really are, are use this knowledge to optimize your personal productivity as well as your interactions with 0thers.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

Labels, Tags and Keywords: self-knowledge, personality-typing, energy vampires, sociopathy, psychopathy, selfishness, manipulation,  vigilance, depraved indifference, Self-Control, Articles by Douglas Castle, Taking Command, negotiations, self-defense, personal productivity, leadership... 

Resources: There is a very interesting and entertaining blog about astrology and psychopathology which I happened upon, and which I highly recommend your taking a look at: http://www.elsaelsa.com/astrology/tag/psychopath/. While I am not an expert or a fully-convinced adherent to astrological analysis and prediction, I continue to keep an open mind...hopefully it won't evaporate.


Douglas Castle
Toll-Free Telephone: 888.317.6498
Facsimile: 914.517.5944
Become a Member Of TNNWC Group: http://bit.ly/JoinTNNWC

Thursday, September 23, 2010

A Simple Negotiating Tip - Concessions

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Dear Friends:

When negotiating, if you must make a concession, or you must yield on a demand to your opponent, you should be certain to do the following things to maintain a perceived strength and negotiating advantage:

1. Never simply "give in" and say "no problem." Make bit of a fuss, hesitate, think about it, sit back in your chair, and after pausing to take exhale slowly, say, "I'm not certain I feel good about that. Why is it important to you?" If and when you do concede, it should always look like you've given something of value away, and made a painful sacrifice.

2. If you relent, prior to giving it up, say, "I'll try to accommodate you, but you are asking for quite a bit. I could only consider this if you _____________________ (request that your opponent give you some opportunity, advantage, or "exchange" for whatever you've sacrificed. Let your opponent think that he has won something of value, and made a payment, however small, in exchange for it. In brief, if you giveth, you must taketh something else away.

3. Hassle in this manner over small points, to take your opponent's focus off the important ones. In fact, after giving him a rough time over several such concessions, he will be more inclined to yield to you on one of the more significant points. After a number of small concessions, your opponent will be a bit fatigued, but will feel a bit victorious. When a point of significance finally emerges, you will be well positioned to say (after "giving in" on so many concessions), "this is becoming very one-sided, and I feel that you are have asked me for a great many things...in the spirit of making a deal, in in light of how much I have accommodated you, the least that you can do is____________________; and that's where you win your big concession and victory.

Negotiating is game that involves acting, misdirection and manipulation. Study all three. Your interactions with others are a series of negotiations.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

p.s. In the words of Francis Buxton, Jr., "My father says that everything is negotiable, Pee Wee."





Douglas Castle
Toll-Free Telephone: 888.317.6498
Facsimile: 914.517.5944
Become a Member Of TNNWC Group: http://bit.ly/JoinTNNWC

INSTANT MANAGEMENT - Douglas Castle's Crash Course

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MANAGEMENT requires a plan, leadership, delegation of responsibility, some basic rules, communications, compliance, monitoring and enforcement -- as well as some genuine positive incentives directly related to successful performance. Now step forward and collect your diploma.

Yours,

Douglas


Douglas Castle
Toll-Free Telephone: 888.317.6498
Facsimile: 914.517.5944
Become a Member Of TNNWC Group: http://bit.ly/JoinTNNWC

Monday, September 20, 2010

The Entrepreneurial Trinity - Competence, Trustworthiness and Initiative.

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"The Entrepreneur's Trinity:
Competence. Trustworthiness. Initiative.
Look for partners and teammates with these virtues, and win." - Douglas Castle 

Don't waste time trying to convert, coax, cajole and persuade people to partner with you or to join your team who do not possess all three of these key attributes. These are the raw material required, at minimum, to build business and to generate progress.

If you work with people who are lacking in any of these areas, you will find yourself working harder and achieving much less.

Again (join in the chant): Competence. Trustworthiness. Initiative.


Maximize your achievements by leveraging the Trinity. Anything less is less than satisfactory and less than what you need to accomplish great things in life. Don't recruit robots or sycophants -- recruit individuals who are better than you are at the skills for which they are demanded.

Always get the best.

--DC

Douglas Castle
Toll-Free Telephone: 888.317.6498
Facsimile: 914.517.5944
Become a Member Of TNNWC Group: http://bit.ly/JoinTNNWC



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Thursday, September 09, 2010

My Brother's Keeper - The Precarious Line Between Being A Protector And Becoming A Prison Guard

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My Brother's Keeper -- The Precarious Line Between Being A Protector and Becoming a Prison Guard

Dear Friends:

I have been told that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. I remember being taught in elementary school that freedom is being "able to swing your arms as far and wide as you'd like, provided that you don't hit anybody else."

I was a kid in the 1960s, and I cried when I heard the song by the Hollies, "He Ain't Heavy -
He's My Brother." The sentiment, philosophically, in its purest form is beautiful -- if each of us, without exception, treated each other with respect, patience, acceptance...offering help, going out of our way to be giving and not looking for payment with interest, we would live in a utopia. We could truly be the proverbial global family.

Human Nature is such, however, that families constantly fight. When we say that we are offering help, we are too often actually seeking to control. It's a paradox -- like the notion of "protective custody." When we carry our own subjective idea of "protection" or "caring" too far, it invariably results in the deprivation of someone else's freedom.

I like the quaint notions of "live and let live," and "I have a right, if provoked, to protect myself by any means appropriate to meet the threat as I perceive it." I am willing to make my own decisions and live with the consequences; to take responsibility for my own actions, and let other people do the same. I don't want to be constrained by someone else's mandate or agenda, and I do not wish to impose my ideas or rules on anybody else.

Sadly, real freedom requires a great burden of self-sufficiency and responsibility. It requires that we sometimes intervene when others request us to intervene. And while we should be respectful of each other, one of us cannot truly set another free if it involves imposing our will upon them. You cannot spread freedom at the point of a sword or by an act of war.

I am empathetic, but I don't want to institutionalize every fellow Human I feel sorry for. I get very suspicious when someone wants to protect me from myself, or from others.

The bottom line: I believe that too many fearful people have come to equate protection or security with freedom .

The paradox: How can you protect me and keep me secure without depriving me of my freedom? Am I truly still free if I am living under your protection?

Freedom, to my mind, means protecting myself and not initiating hostilities against others. It does not involve living in a concrete bunker, or in a police state. It also does not preclude me from being empathetic or kind if I choose to be.

Here are some other notable quotes on the same subject:

A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned - this is the sum of good government. - Thomas Jefferson, Writings, 1743-1826




I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of the people. - Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Thomas Cooper, 1802



One of the traditional methods of imposing statism or socialism on a people has been by way of medicine. It's very easy to disguise a medical program as a humanitarian project. Most people are a little reluctant to oppose anything that suggests medical care for people who possibly can't afford it. - Ronald Reagan, 1961



You know, there's a lot of talk in this country about the federal deficit. But I think we should talk more about our empathy deficit - the ability to put ourselves in someone else's shoes; to see the world through the eyes of those who are different from us - the child who's hungry, the steelworker who's been laid-off, the family who lost the entire life they built together when the storm came to town. When you think like this - when you choose to broaden your ambit of concern and empathize with the plight of others, whether they are close friends or distant strangers - it becomes harder not to act; harder not to help. - Barack Obama, Xavier University Commencement Speech, 2006



It is that fundamental belief, I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper that makes this country work. It's what allows us to pursue our individual dreams and yet still come together as one American family. E pluribus unum. Out of many, one. - Barack Obama, Democratic National Convention Speech, 2004 ... and LASTLY...



If I do not ask for your help, please do not be offended if I refuse your unsolicited offer of help. And if you insist, and you corner me, please do not be offended if I perceive your offer of "help," as a threat, and act accordingly. - Douglas Castle

-----------------------
Please give this some thought. It doesn't mean that we can't be friends, or that we can't collaborate and cooperate. It means that each of us is ultimately responsible for his or her own decisions and outcomes, and that we have a chance to kick ourselves for failing, or to rejoice in our success.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

Labels, Tags and Key Words: freedom, control issues, defending rights, responsibility, cooperation does not entail coercion, Articles by Douglas Castle, TNNWC Group LLC,

















Pictured Above: BenPictured Below: Uncle Doug
















Douglas Castle
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Join my TNNWC Group, LLC collaborative business community (GICBC) at no cost by clicking on http://bit.ly/JoinTNNWC.
 

Tuesday, September 07, 2010

INSTANT MANAGEMENT - Douglas Castle's Crash Course

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MANAGEMENT requires a plan, leadership, delegation of responsibility, some basic rules, communications, compliance, monitoring and enforcement -- as well as some genuine positive incentives directly related to successful performance. Now step forward and collect your diploma.

Yours,

Douglas


Douglas Castle
Toll-Free Telephone: 888.317.6498
Facsimile: 914.517.5944
Become a Member Of TNNWC Group: http://bit.ly/JoinTNNWC

Friday, September 03, 2010

How The Big Boys Negotiate - A Bit of Blame-Shifting, and a Bit of "Friendly" Extortion

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HOW THE BIG BOYS NEGOTIATE - A Bit of Blame-Shifting, and a Bit of "Friendly" Extortion

Note: This article, written by Douglas Castle, originally appeared in TAKING COMMAND! (http://takingcommand.blogspot.com/)  on September 3, 2010 is reprinted with the author's permission.



Dear Friends:

The following article, taken from The New York Times, is as humorous as it was predictable.

The factual scenario is summarized:

1. BP, through its negligence and legendary risk-taking behavior creates (by its drilling) an ecological crisis of unsurpassed proportions.

2. The coastal states' wetlands and oceans are profoundly injured, as are all of the area businesses and the long-suffering economy. All is befouled due to BP's casual approach to offshore drilling and disregard for safety and the environment.

3. The US Government (in a tussle with State and local authorities), strikes a "good faith" deal with BP where BP will accumulate a fund from which it will pay out claims to injured parties. That fund, and any claims are supposed to be handled by an independent US attorney as Special Master in order to keep everybody "honest."

4. BP claims that it is acculmulating this restitution fund, but has dropped the issue of the Special Master's participation, and is spending a fortune on some TV commercials featuring BP hotlines to call about claims. This is like having somebody mug you, and then tapping on the shoulder and asking if you could have some of the money back from the wallet he stole so that you might have cabfare to a hospital. It's putting more power in the hands of the offending party. It's stupid.

5. Parties in the US want to continue to impose a ban on offshore drilling -- largely in response to the BP disaster.

6. BP claims that if offshore drilling (its favorite pastime and a substantial profit-maker) were to be limited, that it might not be able to make sufficient money to accumulate the victims' restitution fund (which it is still supervising and administering, wolf-in-charge-of-the-henhouse style, in its tradition of "integrity" and "good faith"). In basic terms, BP is very like the embezzler who is caught, and tried in court and compalains to the Judge, "How can I repay my victims if you send me to jail? If I can't continue to steal from new victims, then how can I make sufficient money to make my victims whole?

Yesterday someone mentioned to me that BP should change its name from BRITISH PETROLEUM to "BIG PIG." I added that the US government, at inestimable cost to its taxpayers and the victims of the "little leak," will provide the trough and the swill.

Oink!

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle
---------------
Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Thu, September 02, 2010 -- 9:33 PM ET
-----

BP Says Limits on Drilling Imperil Spill Payouts

BP is warning Congress that if lawmakers pass legislation
that bars the company from getting new offshore drilling
permits, it may not have the money to pay for all the damages
caused by its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

The company says a ban would also imperil the ambitious Gulf
Coast restoration efforts that officials want the company to
voluntarily support.

####

Key Terms, Tags and Labels: Conflict of interest, voluntary compliance, recriminations, circular logic, misplaced trust, BP, ecological disasters, paradoxes, shifting blame, shifting costs, economics, big business and big government, offshore oil drilling, negotiations, politics, posturing, propaganda, TNNWC Group, The National Newspicker, Left Right and Center, Blue Tuesday Report, Douglas Castle, trends, trending, confederation of dunces, conspiracy theory, victimization, juggernauts, oxymoron, farsical fossil fuels.

Douglas Castle
Toll-Free Telephone: 888.317.6498
Facsimile: 914.517.5944
Become a Member Of TNNWC Group: http://bit.ly/JoinTNNWC

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