Thursday, October 29, 2009

Statistics: It Could be the Heisenberg Principle -- Yet, I'm Uncertain...

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Statistics:
It Could be the Heisenberg Principle -- Yet, I'm Uncertain...

Dear Readers:

Firstly, note that the reference above has nothing to do with a trophy or with any organized sport inbolving a puck or any other projectile. It involves the notion of observation bias and the inherent uncertainty which surrounds it.

In basic terms, Heisenberg stated (probably in German), the act of our observing events actually influences them. While he was likely applying this to the notion of locating any particular electron orbiting an atom at any given moment, it metaphorically extrapololates itself to the notion of "before you judge the data, judge the source." In reviewing the results of surveys, polls, studies and the like, the first job is to investigate the influences (financial, industrial, personal, temporal, etc.) that "motivated" [either consciously or subconsciously] the researchers to do the research -- and often the priority of "selling a point of view" over merely "objectively discovering the truth" without any preconceived notion or extraneous pressures or influences.

Poll readers beware! The information which you are receiving may be marketing or publicity thinly-veiled as "objective reporting." Need an example? FOX NEWS: FAIR AND BALANCED REPORTING. (chuckle). Need another: The US Labor Department Statistics about unemployment and jobs lost. Tell Americans who cannot find employment anywhere, or who have just given up trying, or who have just reached the end of their unemployment benefits that we are "coming out of the recession," or that we've "turned the corner."

Caveat emptor.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

DOUGLAS CASTLE
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Labels and Terms: polls, surveys, bias, hidden influences, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, judging the source, judging the reasons, asking questions about credibility and objectivity, TNNW, Douglas Castle

Saturday, October 17, 2009

DENIAL AS DEFENSE

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Denial As Defense


Dear Readers:

I call to your kind attention a behavioral pattern which I have observed in many people. These people (perhaps all of us, at one time or another) use denial as a defense, either when doing something wrong or when being accused of cowardice. Apparently, very few people favor the notion of being seen as cowards - and even more, they really do not like when answering a question honestly would force them to admit acting cowardly. These seem to be the most commonly occurring cases:

1. When something has gone wrong, and others are looking to fix blame;
2. When responding to a legal summons and complaint;
3. When being accused of not facing-down an enemy -- this is my perosnal favorite. This twist on the basic Human theme of denial is through the use of logic with a spurious premise.
  • "He's not really my enemy - he's trying to help me."
  • "She's not really my enemy - she's just doing her job."
  • "He's not my enemy - he's just pretending so that other people won't realize that he's really an ally."
  • "Oh, come on...she's really harmless."
  • "Your don't understand! That's how he/ she shows his/ her love."
This pattern of denial is so firmly entrenched that we often alter our internal perspective in favor of something less effacing of ourselves. We actually deny ourselves the knowledge of the truth. This can be a very destructive form of psychic or emotional defense...it prevents learning, stifles self-growth and rewards inertia.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle







DOUGLAS CASTLE
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Monday, October 12, 2009

DISPROPORTIONATE FORCE

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DISPROPORTIONATE FORCE

This article was written for TAKING COMMAND! (http://takingcommand.blogspot.com/) by TNNW Featured Author Douglas Castle.

The term "civil war," not unlike "dry water," is a very literal oxymoron which has taken on a distinct meaning with repeated usage over a long period of time. There is obviously no civility involved in war. Going a step further, if you choose to menace me (with repeated threats, or through increasingly encroaching upon my rights or freedoms), my first moral obligation is to warn you -- to insist that you stop. But if you persist, then I must assume that you intend to endanger me, and that you are prepared to do so even at your own peril. If you choose to hold me hostage --  whether by continued intimidation, or by menacing me at knifepoint or gunpoint, or even by an established pattern of escalating abuses, you have given me license to take whatever steps I deem necessary in my own defense.

While I might have a higher moral imperative to conduct a "surgical strike" or to measure my action against you to be merely sufficient to eliminate the threat, I cannot know exactly what measure of force is "proportionate." That depends upon my perception, my relative strength and a number of other variables. In real-time, I cannot make this computation when I am threatened. I am not responsible for your safety if you have demonstrated you intention to compromise mine.

In brief, if you insist on threatening to kill me, you might have to suffer the consequences of my failure to determine what constitutes "adequate force." I may well use what will be referred to in retrospect as "disproportionate force."

I would not entrust my life to someone who was hell-bent on exterminating me. I cannot be relied upon to be fully rational when I am under siege or attack by an irrational attacker. I must defend myself. I cannot calculate the "appropriate measure of force" in the heat of life-threatening danger, and I most certainly can't do any calculations posthumously.

"Disproportionate force" has applications in physics, in non-life-threatening situations, and in the manipulative banter of politics.

If you don't attack me, I am a reasonable fellow...I will not commit atrocities or war crimes. But if you make that death threat, you have assumed complete responsibility for your own fate, whatever that fate may be.

As my dear friend Gabriel would say, "C'mon. Let's get real."

The following Associated Press article (transmitted via Yahoo! re-broadcast) caught my attention. It's worth reading, and examining very carefully.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle
####

Netanyahu: No war crimes trials for IsraelisAP 


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks, during the opening of the AP – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks, during the opening of the winter session at the Knesset, …


By JOSEF FEDERMAN, Associated Press Writer Josef Federman, Associated Press Writer 42 mins ago

JERUSALEM – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday vowed never to allow Israeli leaders or soldiers to stand trial on war crimes charges over their actions during last winter's military offensive in the Gaza Strip, furiously denouncing a U.N. report in a keynote address to parliament.

Netanyahu's fiery rhetoric — and his decision to open the high-profile speech with remarks on the report — reflected the deep distress felt among Israeli leaders after a U.N. commission accused Israel of intentionally harming civilians when it launched a massive attack in Gaza to stop years of rocket fire.

"This distorted report, written by this distorted committee, undermines Israel's right to defend itself. This report encourages terrorism and threatens peace," Netanyahu said in his address at the opening of parliament's winter session. "Israel will not take risks for peace if it can't defend itself."

The U.N. report, compiled by a team led by former war crimes prosecutor Richard Goldstone, accused Israel of using disproportionate force, deliberately targeting civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure during a three-week offensive against Hamas militants last winter. The report also accused Hamas of war crimes by deliberately targeting civilians and trying to spread terror with rocket attacks.

Israeli officials across the board have condemned the report, saying their country had little choice but to take harsh action against militants who were terrorizing southern Israel. They also blame Hamas for civilian casualties, saying the Islamic militant group took cover in residential areas during the fighting. However, Goldstone's strong credentials as a respected South African jurist, his Jewish faith and past support for Israeli causes have made it hard for Israel to dismiss the claims.
Netanyahu angrily noted the report's portrayal of Israeli leaders as war criminals. "The truth is exactly the opposite. Israel's leaders and its army are those who defended the citizens of Israel from war criminals," he said, before vowing to defend the country's wartime leaders.

"We will not allow Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak, who sent our sons to war, to arrive at the international court in the Hague," he said.

While Netanyahu has repeatedly lashed out at the U.N. report, Monday's comments appeared to be a direct response to a new Palestinian push for a vote on the report in the U.N.'s Human Rights Commission. If the vote takes place, the matter could be referred to higher U.N. bodies that could theoretically push for war-crimes prosecution.

Earlier this month, Abbas' government had agreed to delay the vote for six months. That decision, which came under heavy U.S. pressure, sparked sharp criticism and protests across Palestinian society, particularly from the rival Hamas government in the Gaza Strip.

In contrast to predecessors who have used parliamentary addresses to speak of bold visions of peace, Netanyahu spoke in far bleaker terms. He focused on past Jewish suffering and criticized the futility of previous peace efforts, blaming Arab adversaries for their failure.

"The right to a Jewish state and the right to self-defense are two of the existential rights of our people," he said. "These basic rights of the Jewish people have been under greatly increasing attack. ... Our prime mission is to stave off this attack."

President Barack Obama has been trying to persuade the Israelis and Palestinians to restart peace talks, which broke down late last year. Even after receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, he faces a daunting challenge in just getting the sides to talk, let alone in solving one of the world's longest lasting and most intractable conflicts.

The Palestinians say they will not resume negotiations until Israel freezes all construction in Jewish settlements in the West Bank and east Jerusalem — areas they claim as parts of a future independent state.

Netanyahu says some settlement construction must continue to accommodate growth in the Jewish populations. He also says all of Jerusalem will remain in Israeli hands, although Israel's annexation of the eastern part of the city and its sensitive holy sites has never been internationally recognized.
Netanyahu, for his part, has demanded the Palestinians recognize Israel as a Jewish state — a demand the Palestinians criticize as upping the ante from previous negotiations. The Palestinians say it would discriminate against Israel's Arab minority and deprive Palestinian refugees of their rights to lost properties in what is now Israel.

"For 62 years, the Palestinians have been saying 'No' to the Jewish state. I am once again calling upon our Palestinian neighbors; say 'Yes' to the Jewish state." he said. "Without recognition of Israel as the state of the Jews we shall not be able to attain peace."
####
Mercy, like charity, begins in the home. --DC

By the way, wasn't there a large outcry against former U.S. President George W. Bush for his pre-emptive and unprovoked attack against Iraq? Heck...aren't you curious to know why that who move to bring him to the World Court for War Crimes (or at least, according to Vincent Bugliosi, indicting him for murder in his ordering U.S. troops to live-threatening peril based upon his own "intelligence," "agenda" or "vendetta."

One of the finer points of prosecution has to do with your:
  • Being acknowledged as a legitimate judge with proper jurisdiction;
  • Being able to bring the the accused to a trial or investigative forum;
  • Being able to pass sentence and actually carry out that sentence, whatever it may be.
Disproportionate force? How about a world where the judgments of the powerful can be enforced, but where the judgments of the weaker have no force? I find this a bit ironic, too.

Cuter still is the notion of "liberating a people from oppression." I would think that a pickpocket could craft a defense around the same concept: "Your Honor, I appropriated this man's wallet to liberate him from his propensities for greed and gluttony." Bet it wouldn't work. :)

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Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Small People, Big Machines

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Small People, Big Machines

We are a species of small people who build big machines to 1) perpetuate ourselves, and to 2) improve upon ourselves with increased power and function. We build telescopes, spacecraft, computers, nuclear reactors, drone missiles, whole societies, powerful weapons, monetary systems, institutions, codes of law, courts, religious structures, constitutions, artificial hearts...amazing and magnificent things upon cursory inspection. But there are some issues that should be considered.

We tend to get into problems when we make any of the following strategic errors:
  • We become too dependent on these machines;
  • We lose the ability to monitor, unplug and adjust these machines;
  • We forget about our original purpose in creating these machines;
  • We surrender our power to these machines and let them run our individual lives for us, and to make all of our decisions for us;
  • We assume that they are always more accurate or better than the persons who created them or the persons who are using them;
  • We sell them to others who turn them against us (no...I haven't said anything about the blowback in Afghanistan -- that would be far to easy);
  • We lose the instruction manuals;
  • We entrust their custodianship to unworthy individuals;
  • We blame them for our own, Human failings;
  • We let our bodies and minds atrophy because of our reliance upon these machines;
  • We neglect to test them adequately (no, I won't reference Internet Explorer 8) prior to release or deployment;
  • We begin to worship them as if they we God-made, and not Human-made.
There is no mistaking the lure and addictive power of machines. They are like narcotics in this way. And when we become addicted, we become enslaved.

Machines should serve us, lest we wish to serve them.

I am not a great fan of such hit movies as The Terminator, The Net, The Matrix, Arthur Clarke's/ Stanley Kubrick's '2001'. It saddens me to read Revelations.

But regardless of my criticisms of the lack of artfulness in some of these works, I believe them to be potentious. Today's science fiction (I am told) becomes tomorrow's science fact.

You've been warned.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

DOUGLAS CASTLE
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